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Fundamentals for industrial property remain sound

Industrial occupier and investment markets remain well placed to ride out uncertainty caused by COVID-19, despite comparisons being drawn to the 2008 global financial crisis.
 
The Colliers International Industrial Research and Forecast Report for H1 2020 found that unlike the GFC, where rents contracted between 9% and 25% in the prime market and 15% and 25% in the secondary market, the recent growth in demand for transport and logistics and its key role in keeping necessities of Australians in supply is underpinning the sector. 

“As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are going to be tenant casualties who are unable to trade through this period and there will others who experience a significant pick-up in business revenue,” said Malcom Tyson, Managing Director, Industrial at Colliers International.

“Tenant covenants will be increasingly scrutinised going forward and length of WALE will never be more important as the flight to quality thematic plays out.”

“While certain locations may see a fall in rents and a rise in incentives, we do not expect it to be to the same extent as we saw in the GFC. Likewise, we do not expect yields to blow out by 150 basis points as they did in the GFC.”

“While there may be some softening of yields for secondary assets as risk becomes priced in, core assets with strong businesses within will remain highly sought after by both domestic and global capital and yields will remain firm.”

Luke Crawford, Associate Director, Research said, “The fundamentals for industrial and logistics property remain sound over the long term and as a result the sector is expected to be less impacted than others through this period.”

“With the exception of population growth which will take a hit in the short term as net overseas migration drops significantly off the back of border closures, the other key drivers of infrastructure investment and growth in e-commerce will continue to remain strong in the current environment.”

“The value of e-commerce has increased exponentially as a result of COVID-19 and the take-up of online retail will gain market share on brick-and-mortar retail sales, as consumers are forced to buy online and others who have never used online platforms will become comfortable with this form of shopping.”

“Highlighting the persistent demand for online retail goods due to global lockdown restrictions, Amazon in the US have hired 100,000 employees to cater towards its spike in demand for e-commerce goods. In Australia, we have seen retailers shift some of their staff to online fulfilment as they try to keep up with demand. “

Colliers’ reported that investment volumes have weakened over the first quarter of 2020, with investment activity in the quarter being at its lowest level since 2010. The weaker activity is the result of several institutions and corporates holding off on their divestment mandates as they wait to see the impact on headline investment metrics such as cap rates, IRRs and value per square metre rates. 

“In spite of uncertainty, there remains substantial levels of capital seeking to expand within the Australian logistics sector, with private investors recently becoming more active, particularly across the East Coast Capital cities,” said Gavin Bishop, National Director, Industrial at Colliers International

“Institutions remain focussed on increasing their assets under management; however, their attention has shifted towards prime assets in core locations with sound covenants and long WALEs.”

“Recent events have forced groups to reassess risk and chase security and subsequently, the flight to quality will persist as the distinction and pricing between grades, locations and covenants comes to the forefront.”

“Given the defensive nature of industrial and logistics property, coupled it being a more liquid asset compared to other property asset classes given the lower price point, industrial property is expected to remain in favour with investors in 2020.”

According to Colliers Industrial Research and Forecast report, 2020 was expected to be a record year in terms of demand. In 2019, approximately 3.8 million sqm of industrial space was leased (1,000sqm+), representing the second highest annual total on record. 

“While enquiry levels remain healthy in most markets, demand has shifted towards defensive occupiers including food and beverage retailers, e-commerce groups (including fast moving consumer goods), transport and logistics providers, data centres and cold storage occupiers,” said Malcom Tyson.

“Other businesses who were previously in the market for new or expansionary space have since placed these decisions on hold as they determine the impacts of COVID-19 on their business. “
 

Related Experts

Malcom Tyson

Chief Executive Officer | Australia

Corporate Executive

Sydney CBD

Malcom is the Chief Executive Officer for Colliers in Australia, delivering on our business plan and driving our enterprising culture. Our company is underpinned by a clear set of values, designed to maximise the potential of property to accelerate the success of our clients and our people.  

Over his 27-year career with Colliers, Malcom has had the opportunity to build and grow a number of successful teams. Prior to his current role, he led the NSW business along with the national Industrial business for 15 years. In 2005, Malcom joined the National Executive where the leadership group has steered our business to achieve incredible growth and reinforced our market-leading culture. Our business stability and continuity continue to attract market leaders, empowering them to think and act differently to drive exceptional results.  

Colliers has an enterprising culture which underpins our strategy for success. The business has won multiple accolades as a Best Employer and best in class in many service arenas. We appreciate the loyalty of our people and our clients and we thrive on collaborating to create enterprising solutions that exceed expectations. 

Within Australia, Malcom has had the benefit of working with a highly regarded leadership team, including John Marasco and Simon Hunt, who are focussed on maximising the potential of property for our clients, through delivering enterprising solutions as we work through the market conditions of 2021. By keeping aligned to our values of being enterprising to exceed expectations and collaborating to drive exceptional results, Colliers are well positioned in 2021 to maximise the potential of property and to be a part of leading our industry into the future, not only in Australia but right across the Asia Pacific region. 

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Luke Crawford

Director

Research

Sydney CBD

Luke has 10 years’ experience in property research and real estate advisory, providing strategic advice and research to private, government and listed groups. Luke currently heads up the national industrial and logistics research function at Colliers, where he provides high quality research on the trends impacting the sector to both internal business lines and clients.

Luke has provided tailored and strategic industrial and logistics research to groups including Charter Hall, Mapletree, ESR, Ascendas, Centennial and ARA.

Prior to joining Colliers International, Luke has held roles within the Real Estate Advisory Services (REAS) division at KPMG and the Research and Consultancy team at Knight Frank.

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Gavin Bishop

Head of Industrial Capital Markets | Australia

Industrial

Sydney CBD

Gavin is the Head of Industrial Capital Markets Australia and the Head of the NSW Industrial Team at Colliers International, where he has been specialising in industrial property for 20 years. Based in the Sydney CBD Head Office, Gavin manages a highly successful team of over 40 staff across broader Sydney in key industrial precincts.

Gavin specialises in the national industrial capital markets and has excellent relationships across a broad spectrum of institutional, international and private investors. Over Gavin’s time with Colliers, he has completed hundreds of deals in industrial property, settling over $14 billion in his career to date, and leasing over 400,000sqm. Gavin enjoys a 75% market share of industrial capital markets share in NSW.

Gavin has worked extensively in the sale of industrial portfolios of up to 30 assets in one portfolio. Gavin and his team have sold 20/22 of all industrial portfolios in the Australia over the last four years, including the J.P. Morgan Portfolio ($250m), Altis Portfolio ($342.5m) and GIC/Australand Portfolio ($1.073b) and AMP Portfolio ($105m).

Some major distribution centre sales that Gavin and his team have been involved in over the last two years include, the Calibre, Eastern Creek ($130.1 million), 1 Eucalyptus Place, Eastern Creek ($90.5 million), 3 Roberts Road, Eastern Creek ($253 millions) and 6-20 Clunies Ross Street, Greystanes ($76.6 million)

Gavin has focused on building deep relationships with his clients, providing the latest in-depth information about logistics markets across Australia, which in line with his extensive track record, has seen Gavin achieve record-breaking results for his clients.

Gavin is a long-standing member of the Colliers team, having joined in 2000 as a graduate valuer. Gavin commenced with Colliers as part of their Scholarship Program and he was fortunate to work across multiple service lines and locations across Sydney, before settling in the Industrial team in Sydney South in 2001. Over the last 20 years, Gavin has progressed through the industrial business including managing the Sydney South and Sydney South West offices, before moving into the NSW State Product Director for Industrial in 2010.

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